Trump Formally Notifies Congress of Iran War Resumption - Third Consecutive Night of Strikes Ensue
We are very far past the little “excursion” the administration talked about in the earlier phases of Operation Epic Fury...
This article originally appeared on ZeroHedge and was republished with permission.
Guest post by Tyler Durden
Summary
Trump formally notifies Congress US has resumed war with Iran.
Trump warns will hit Iran ‘hard’ tonight or tomorrow; Pentagon confirms 3rd night of strikes has begun.
Reports of Houthi missiles launched on Saudi Arabia: oil extends gains near month-highs.
Trump says US blockade of Iran ports ‘reinstated’: states that US to be reimbursed at rate of 20% of cargo shipped for vessels wishing to transit. CENTCOM affirms with closure message.
Strikes escalated over weekend: US hit over 140 Iranian military targets; Iran attacks US-linked facilities across the Gulf.
Shipping tensions boil: Iran claims the strait is closed, but commercial vessels continue transiting under US protection.
Oil prices climb: on rising risk to global shipping & energy markets, as diplomacy clearly unraveling.
WH Formally Notifies Congress War has Resumed
We are very far past the little “excursion” the administration talked about in the earlier phases of Operation Epic Fury, per reports late this afternoon and early evening:
President Trump formally notified Congress last week that the U.S. has resumed military strikes against Iran, providing the Pentagon an extra 60 days to utilize U.S. forces in the U.S. Central Command (Centcom) theater absent congressional approval.
Trump told lawmakers in a 2-page letter on Friday that U.S. strikes resumed against Iran on July 7, alerting legislators in line with the War Powers Act, which stipulates the commander-in-chief has to inform Congress within two days of the military conducting kinetic action abroad.
President Trump is still insisting that the US won’t get sucked into a ground war, akin the Iraq or Afghan wars. “United States ground forces are not involved in these strikes. These strikes are limited, measured, planned and executed in a manner designed to minimize civilian casualties,” the president wrote in the letter.
Overnight reports say Iran has in turn renewed its retaliation on Gulf allies hosting American bases, especially Bahrain.
Pentagon Announced 3rd Night of Major Strikes
In case anyone had doubts that the region has witnessed a return to full-scale US-Iran war, CENTCOM has announced that it has begun launching the third consecutive night of strikes on Iran in the overnight hours (local):
This as President Trump has claimed Monday that the US had a “deal with [Iran] two days ago” but that Tehran wanted “to negotiate it further”. However when asked by a reporter whether he thinks a negotiated settlement is no longer possible Trump responded: “I never reached that conclusion.”
He explained his beleif that the “most effective” way to put pressure on Iran is va a combination of a blockade and “hitting them”. Earlier he and the Pentagon announced that a full blockade of Iranian ports is back on.
New deaths the the Strait of Hormuz being reported:
Fresh Trump statement, oil extends gains
The US is going to hit Iran hard on Monday night and Tuesday, Trump has previewed in remarks to conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt.
When asked about the MoU, Trump said it was a “test” for Iran, which “they did not honor”. The remarks came just as reports emerged of more IRGC attacks on vessels seeking to transit the Strait of Hormuz.
OIL PRICES EXTEND GAINS IN POST SETTLEMENT TRADE, RISES 10%
There’s a rich irony in terms of the day this will be implemented, an anniversary of sorts:
The US has said it will reimpose its naval blockade of Iran on Tuesday, on what would have been the 11th anniversary of the signing of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
The landmark nuclear was finalised in Vienna on July 14, 2015 after being agreed by Iran, Britain, China, France, Germany, Russia and the United States.
The negative return to full war headlines have come one after another on Monday
IRAN’S TASNIM SAYS SEVERAL ‘VIOLATING’ VESSELS WERE TARGETED IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ
TRUMP SAYS US WILL HIT IRAN ‘HARD’ TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
TRUMP: IRAN MOU WAS BUILT TO TEST
TRUMP NOTIFIES CONGRESS OF NEW WAR AGAINST IRAN: POLITICO
TRUMP ON IRAN: WE HAD A DEAL YESTERDAY, THEY BREAK DEALS
Iranian state media cites the army stating that it targeted US military facilities and equipment in Kuwait with drones, while it also targeted a ‘hostile’ US vessel with cruise missiles
Oil Surges To Month-Highs on Yemen Missile Attack on Saudi Arabia
Reports are emerging out of Saudi Arabia of inbound ballistic missile attacks on its air bases and/or an international airport. With Houthi potential involvement unfolding, there are fears that this war is now rapidly expanding. Oil is reacting to what is both the complete unraveling of the MoU and new signs of the Houthis joining the war on Iran’s side:
US blockade encompasses entirety of Iranian coastline: RTRS
Saudi defenses dealing with Houthi missile attack: Alekhbariya
Tasnim reports of an attack on Abha International Airport in Saudi Arabia
Yemeni war media identifies the coordinates of important airports and ports in Saudi Arabia that will likely be targeted by Houthi attacks, reports Tasnim
Explosions heard on Iran’s Larak Island in Hormuz Strait: Tasnim
Several violating ships were targeted in the Strait of Hormuz, reports Tasnim
WTI climbs to near $78 around one month highs...
CENTCOM statement affirming Trump’s blockade announcement:
At the Commander in Chief’s direction, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces will resume blockading maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports on July 14 at 4 p.m. ET.
CENTCOM forces will enforce the blockade against vessels transiting to or from Iranian ports and coastal areas. The U.S. military continues to support traffic flow through regional waters for all vessels not violating the blockade.
The resumption of the U.S. blockade against Iran follows the initial implementation from April 13 to June 18. CENTCOM forces redirected more than 140 compliant vessels, disabled nine non-compliant ships, and allowed over 50 commercial vessels supporting humanitarian aid to pass through the blockade during the two-month period.
All mariners are advised to monitor Notice to Mariners broadcasts and contact U.S. naval forces on bridge-to-bridge channel 16 when operating in the Gulf of Oman and Strait of Hormuz approaches.
Iran Foreign Minister response:
Trump: Blockade Reinstated, US To Be ‘Reimbursed’ on 20% of Cargo
A stunning new Trump statement via Truth Social, proposing that the United States will collect an astounding rate of 20% of cargo shipped for vessels wishing to transit the Strait of Hormuz. He has declared the US military is “reinstating the Iranian blockade” due to the IRGC continuing to try and enforce Iran’s own protocol. This could of course amount to a US ‘fee’ of tens of millions of dollars for each vessel, significantly more than what Iran was seeking to impose. Iran’s retaliation continues? New reports of major incident in Saudi Arabia:
Oil extends gains, rise 7% to session highs:
Oil jumps this morning on the bellow succession of headlines...
IRAN’S REVOLUTIONARY GUARDS SPOKESPERSON: WE CONTINUE TO ASSERT OUR AUTHORITY AND CONTROL OVER THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ
TRUMP: REINSTATING THE IRANIAN BLOCKADE
TRUMP: US WILL BE REIMBURSED 20% ON CARGO FROM HORMUZ
Trump: US to Take Over Strait & Get Paid For It
President Trump in surprising commentary issued to “Fox & Friends” has said the United States will probably take over the Strait of Hormuz and should be reimbursed for controlling it. His words have raised eyebrows given Washington’s stance has been that no one can collect tolls for transit through the vital international waterway. He said once the US gains control of it, following a weekend bombing campaign on Iranian coastal sites, “we’ll probably run it” and “we should be reimbursed for that.”
“We’re going to keep the strait, and we’ll probably run it. We’ll become the guardian of the strait. Maybe we’ll call it the guardian angel of the strait. And we should be reimbursed for that,” he says in the Fox phone interview.
Again, US officials have throughout Operation Epic Fury voiced that it is an illegal outrage for Iran to suggest it would charge fees, but now...
Below is a fuller transcript of the Monday morning exchange:
Fox: It looks like they’re back to trying to take control of the Strait, what’s your response?
Trump: Well, we’re taking over the straight. They have nothing, they’ve got nothing. So.... something that nobody knows, yesterday they had an eleven hour meeting, everything’s eleven hours with these guys you know you can’t settle a one sentence in, one hour, in one minute... It should be one minute—But we had a deal, but nobody knows, we had a deal, it was a done deal, but then they broke it, they always break it. And so we’re just going to hit them very hard. And we’re gonna keep the uh Strait, and we’ll probably run it, we’ll become the guardian of the Strait, maybe we’ll call it “The guardian angel of the Strait”. And we should reimbursed for that, when we do that we’re gonna be reimbursed because the other nations are very wealthy, they’re on our side. We guarded the Strait for 50 years, more, and, we never got paid for it. They made all the money and the US was just, you know, not, it’s just amazing. We guarded it for nothing.
The Iranians have been quick to respond, with its top military command asserting that Iran will not allow the US to intervene in the management of the strait. State-run IRNA also states:
Iran says we will not be forced to pay the ‘enemy’ for ship passage.
So this sets up the warring sides for further clashes in the Persian Gulf region, as absolutist demands continued to be adhered to, and red lines continue to be tested and blown past. Below is more from the Iranian Foreign Ministry articulating enforcement of its passage protocol:
Overnight Attacks
The US and Iran exchanged another round of strikes overnight, extending a weeklong surge in fighting and casting dark clouds of uncertainty over whether the Strait of Hormuz remains open to commercial shipping.
US Central Command revealed US forces unleashed air-delivered munitions on dozens of Iranian air-defense systems, coastal radar systems, missile launch sites, and drone capabilities, bringing the weekend total to about 140 targets. This move aimed to degrade the IRGC’s ability to threaten commercial shipping in the Hormuz chokepoint, which it has done over the past week.
Iran responded with attacks on US-linked facilities in Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan, and Oman, while also claiming it intercepted two vessels using what it called an “illegal route” through Hormuz.
IRGC Fires Warning Shots
Early Monday, Iranian state TV reported that IRGC forces fired “warning shots” at multiple ships attempting to transit the Hormuz chokepoint.
“This morning, two ships that were attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz illegally were targeted and stopped by warning shots fired by the navy of the Revolutionary Guards,” said a correspondent on state TV.
Tehran has declared the strait closed until further notice, but the US military, President Trump, and maritime monitors say the southern route remains passable.
Bloomberg data shows the LNG tanker Al Hamra safely transited the Hormuz chokepoint over the weekend and is now full steam ahead in the Gulf of Oman. Axios noted earlier that 20 commercial ships managed to transit the Hormuz chokepoint in coordination with the US military.
Bloomberg data only tracks ships with transponders on.
Crude Climbs as War Back on Menu
Brent crude futures traded up 3.5% to the midpoint of $78 a barrel, while WTI futures are up around 3.4% to $73.85 amid increasingly heated tit-for-tat attacks.
Here is Deutsche Bank equity research analyst Chris Robertson’s summary of developments last week and through the weekend:
Last week, Iran declared that the Strait of Hormuz is closed until further notice. Iran attacked a commercial container ship attempting to transit the region, causing a fire aboard the vessel.
The Joint Maritime Information Center (JIMC) said on Sunday that the southern Omani route remains available, but that the threat level is rated as “severe”.
Regardless of any claims around the Strait being closed or open, what matters is that commercial ship owners are likely not willing to risk transit in an active war zone, putting ships and crews at risk of attack.
We reiterate our initial concerns that despite major destruction of traditional Iranian naval vessels and assets, the ongoing threat that shipowners face is asymmetric warfare technologies such as drones and missiles. These types of threats are much harder to predict or plan for, thereby maximizing uncertainty related to mitigating voyage risks.
We expect transit activity will slow, especially as it relates to vessels planning to enter the Gulf through the Strait which, unlike exiting activity, is the real sign that conditions are normalizing. We believe that an ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz will lead to downward pressure on shortterm tanker rates as ships remain in other regions, thereby increasing effective supply of those ships.
Diplomacy Unravels
As of Monday morning, it is clear that US-Iran diplomacy is unraveling, while US forces are systematically degrading the IRGC’s ability to close the maritime chokepoint. Commercial ships continue to transit the waterway, undermining Tehran’s claim that the critical waterway is effectively shut.
Tehran must also recognize the longer-term strategic risk: every disruption accelerates global investment in pipelines, export terminals, and other infrastructure designed to bypass Hormuz. Once those alternatives are operational (Read Here), Tehran’s greatest source of geopolitical leverage will evaporate. Then what?
* * *
Overnight/Weekend Developments
US President Trump threatened that the US military would “completely decimate and destroy all areas” of Iran if its leaders attempted or carried out an assassination on him.
US forces said they struck 140 Iranian military targets on Saturday and were also reported to have carried out another round of strikes on Sunday, while Iran targeted at least five US allies across the Middle East in drone and missile assaults early on Sunday, as well as announced that the Strait of Hormuz would be closed until further notice. However, the Joint Maritime Information Centre said the path along the Omani coastline is still available for transit, while it was separately reported that a Chinese tanker transited through Hormuz via an Iran-designated route.
US official said around 20 commercial vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz in coordination with the US military over the last 24 hours, in addition to several vessels without US coordination, according to Axios.
US military announced on Sunday evening that it began a new wave of strikes against Iran to continue degrading its ability to attack civilian mariners and commercial ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, while Iranian TV reported explosions in Qeshm, Jask, Bandar Abbas and Sirik.
US Central Command denied a claim by Iran that three US service members were killed in Kuwait, while it stated that there have been no reports of US casualties in the region, with all personnel accounted for and safe. CENTCOM later commented that it completed a new wave of offensive strikes on Iran, hitting dozens of targets at multiple locations to degrade Iran’s ability to continue attacking international shipping flowing through the Strait of Hormuz.
Kuwait’s military said three border posts were attacked and that a drilling platform owned by the Kuwait Oil Company was struck in a drone attack, while it was separately reported that US intelligence sources noted observations that Iran was preparing to carry out a massive attack on the UAE and Kuwait.
Iran said it caused heavy damage to Jordan’s Prince Hassan Airbase, as well as claimed it targeted the Al-Udeid Airbase in Qatar and a US Navy logistics base in Dukm, Oman. Furthermore, Iran also targeted Kuwait and the US base in Bahrain.
Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei issued a written statement, vowing to avenge the death of his father and said that it was the demand of the nation.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry condemned US attacks on Iranian infrastructure, which it said were a violation of the ceasefire deal and the UN Charter, while it warned Gulf states over the use of territory for US attacks.
Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi said no action against Iran should go unanswered and called for a pre-set response to any attempt against Iran, its military, Supreme Leader and officials.
Iranian lawmaker and member of the Iranian Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, Kashkavi, said Iran prefers to manage the Strait of Hormuz through cooperation with regional states, particularly Oman, and stated that the clear official position is that future management of the Strait will be arranged by Iran.
Iran denied social media reports that claimed the Bushehr nuclear power plant had been attacked, while its nuclear agency said all units continue to operate normally and that the plant is in a safe and stable condition.
Iraq’s PM is to visit Washington on Monday, while oil and gas deals are expected to be announced, although the Islamic Resistance in Iraq warned the government against US economic deals and demanded a US troop withdrawal.
Yemen’s Foreign Ministry reiterated that Yemen would continue its support of Iran in the face of ongoing US and Israeli aggression.
Israeli artillery conducted further shelling in southern Lebanon, according to Lebanon’s National News Agency.
Explosions were heard around Iran’s Bandar Abbas and Qeshm Island on Monday afternoon, Mehr News reported, while there is also the possibility of clashes in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz.
Reported fire at Kharg Island appears to be a result of routine flaring, according to Nour News.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson said the US violated all clauses of the MoU in less than a month and stated that Iran will not execute commitments in the MoU as long as the US is not fulfilling its commitments. He added that the MoU is in “crisis” phase. Muscat talks with Oman were solely focused on the Strait of Hormuz. On the recent strikes, none of the US bases in any country in the region have been removed from the target list and that the defensive strikes of Iran are solely against the bases, facilities and positions used by the US to attack Iran, including their logistical and support facilities. In terms of further talks, mediators are still continuing their efforts to mediate between Iran and the US in recent days and Iran is in contact with mediators.
Iran’s IRGC said only way to open the Strait of Hormuz is to end US military interventions and respect the sovereignty of the countries bordering it.
There is no clear timetable for Israel’s withdrawal from the experimental areas in southern Lebanon amid a policy of consolidation and non-compliance with the framework agreement, Al Araby reported citing sources.
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