Oil Tumbles, Stocks Surges as Israeli TV Reports Imminent 'One Month Ceasefire' Announcement
...based on a mechanism that Witkoff and Kushner are working on.
This article originally appeared on ZeroHedge and was republished with permission.
Guest post by Tyler Durden
Summary
A ceasefire period of one month will be announced shortly, according to Israel Channel 12 reports
WSJ, Fox reporting 3,000 elite Army Airborne soldiers to be ordered to Middle East. Axios says US awaits Iran response to proposed Thursday peace talks. Trump says Iran has been destroyed “militarily”.
Backchannel diplomacy vs skepticism: Abbas Araghchi reportedly signaled openness to negotiations with the US via envoy Steve Witkoff, but Israel has appeared cool on deal prospects or offramp.
Heavy exchange of fire and testing red lines: Iran continues missile and drone waves targeting Israel and US bases, amid reports of overnight airstrikes on military and gas infrastructure near Isfahan.
Iran reshuffles its security leadership, appointing Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr: he’s a former IRGC commander and replaces the assassinated Ali Larijani.
Iran halts natural gas exports to Turkey: follows last week’s Israeli strike on the massive South Pars gas field; QatarEnergy declares force majeure on some LNG contracts due war.
* * *
One-Month Ceasefire Announcement Imminent, Israeli TV
Israel’s Channel 12 TV is reporting that a ceasefire period of one month will be announced shortly, based on a mechanism that Witkoff and Kushner are working on.
Trump claimed that U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner held talks Sunday with an Iranian leader. He did not say who that was.
The Clauses of the Agreement with Iran are as follows, according to @Alhadath_Brk:
Dismantling Iran’s Existing Nuclear Capabilities
Iran vows to “never seek” nuclear weapons
Preventing the enrichment of any nuclear material on Iranian territory
Delivery of enriched uranium to IAEA
Decommissioning and destroying the sites of Natanz, Isfahan and Fordow
Grant the IAEA full access to all information
Iran abandons ‘proxies’ approach
Stopping funding and arming militias in the region
Keeping the Strait of Hormuz open without any closure
Postponement of decision on ballistic missile program
Ballistic missiles are only used for defence
Lifting all sanctions on Iran
Support for the development of a civilian nuclear program in Bushehr
Automatically cancel the threat of reimposition of sanctions
The immediate reaction was a drop in crude oil prices...
...and the mirror image rise in US equity futures...
Obviously we have no confirmation of these reports, and Channel 12 does not cite sources.
Developing...
No Change in Trump Iran Rhetoric in latest from WH
Trump in the oval once again addressed the Iran conflict, saying “this is a change in the Iranian regime,” and went further, stating, “I think we can say this is regime change.”
Trump expressed confidence that negotiations would conclude successfully, saying, “they are going to make a deal; they gave us a significant prize worth tremendous amount of money,” later reiterating that Iran had “gave us a very big present” worth “a very big amount of money” - supposedly the Strait of Hormuz. He asserted “we’ll have control of anything we want.”
He also hailed that Iran has been completely destroyed “militarily” - but without addressing the fact that Iranian forces continue to fire rockets on targets across the region. He at one point proclaimed once again: “we won” - but blamed the “fake news media” for not acknowledging that.
Reports of US-Iran Peace Talks for Thursday
Axios reports another ‘maybe’ planned peace talks: “The U.S. and a group of regional mediators are discussing the possibility of holding high-level peace talks with Iran as soon as Thursday, but are still waiting for a response from Tehran, two sources with knowledge of the discussions” were cited as saying.
As has been the case for days, Tehran is denying that it is in dialogue with Washington, also as the White House has talked about “escalating to de-escalate” - and now amid reports of elite 82nd Airborne troops about to deploy to the region. Trump is reportedly interested in “winding down” the war, but is there an actual plan to do this? More from Axios:
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is concerned Trump might strike a deal that falls well short of Israel’s objectives, includes significant concessions, and limits Israel’s ability to conduct strikes against Iran, two Israeli sources say.
A third source said Israeli leaders were skeptical Iran had actually offered the concessions the U.S. claimed.
Trump confirms efforts, which may still be unreciprocated:
TRUMP: WE’RE IN NEGOTIATIONS WITH IRAN RIGHT NOW
TRUMP: RUBIO, VANCE, OTHER PEOPLE ARE NEGOTIATING WITH IRAN
TRUMP SAYS IRAN IS ‘TALKING SENSE’
TRUMP: IRAN AGREED THEY’LL NEVER HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON
82nd Airborne Division Deploying to Middle East
Amid speculation that President Trump could seek to force open the Strait of Hormuz by some kind of ultra high risk Kharg Island takeover operation, Fox chief national security correspondent Jennifer Griffin has posted the following:
Fox News has learned that the Commander of the 82nd Airborne Division Maj Gen Brandon Tegtmeier and his “command element,” members of his headquarters staff, have been ordered to deploy to the Middle East as the Pentagon and White House weigh whether to send the 82nd Airborne Division to the Middle East for possible land operations.
It was only on Monday that the NYT began reporting Pentagon was seriously weighing whether to send the elite 82nd Airborne. This would be a sure sign of escalation into potential ‘ground operations’.
Here’s more from WSJ:
The Pentagon is planning to deploy about 3,000 soldiers from the Army’s elite 82nd Airborne Division to the Middle East to support operations against Iran, according to two U.S. officials, with a written order expected in the coming hours.
Officials cautioned that a decision to put boots on the ground in Iran hasn’t been made. But deploying the 82nd opens the door to President Trump for several strategic options.
Iran & Israel Trade Blows Despite US Promoting Backchannel Talks
Despite the White House touting backchannel interactions with the Iranians as basis for some kind of peaceful offramp, Israel and Iran intensified direct and regional strikes, in continued escalation of the war. The Israeli military said it had “completed a wave of extensive strikes targeting production sites” across Iran, including in Isfahan, following overnight reports that gas facilities were hit, triggering fears of potential Iranian retaliation on Gulf energy and infrastructure sites - which doesn’t appear to have happened yet.
Iran has kept up its attacks on Israel, launching at least eight overnight missile waves, including reports of cluster munitions as well as new cutting-edge warheads and projectiles. Impacts were reported across Tel Aviv, causing heavy building damage and multiple casualties, as well as with sirens sounding from the Judean Foothills to Eilat. One strike marked a shift in capability, per the NY Times: “One of the Iranian missiles that hit Tel Aviv carried a warhead of around 100 kilograms… This missile was ‘something we have not yet encountered in the war,’” said Col. Miki David.
Iran Halts NatGas Exports to Turkey
More energy flows impact and blowback as Iran has halted natural gas exports to Turkey following last week’s Israeli strike on the massive South Pars gas field, according to regional sources and Bloomberg. Turkey sourced roughly 14% of its gas from Iran last year, per industry data, but continues to rely on Russia and Azerbaijan as primary suppliers while drawing on existing reserves. Ankara has not initially confirmed or commented.
The South Pars field, part of the world’s largest natural gas reserve, sits at the core of Iran’s energy system, underpinning both domestic supply and export flows. Per Middle East Eye: “Data from Turkey’s Energy Market Regulatory Authority suggests that the country imports around 13 percent of its gas needs annually, roughly 7 billion cubic metres (bcm), from Iran.”
The report concludes that “A sharp drop in Iranian gas flows to Turkey following Israel’s strike on the South Pars gas field and Tehran’s retaliatory attacks across the Gulf has raised energy security concerns. But analysts say Ankara will likely be able to cushion the blow.
New National Security Chief (former IRGC), Ongoing Retaliation on Gulf
Iran has continued to signal resilience, downplaying threats to its grid and stating damaged infrastructure could be quickly rebuilt, even as a gas pipeline at Khorramshahr was hit apparently without disruption. Saudi Arabia said it “intercepted and destroyed” more than a dozen drones in its east, while the UAE reported intercepting five ballistic missiles and 17 drones in a single day, bringing totals since the war began to hundreds of missiles and more than 1,800 drones. Bahrain said another facility was set ablaze “as a result of Iranian aggression.”
Tehran has reportedly simultaneously struck US bases, and Gulf states including Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, while warning any attack on its energy network will trigger region-wide blackouts. Northern Iraq has continued to see drone threats. “The entire region will go dark” - Iranian leadership has threatened. Meanwhile, Iran has reshuffled its security leadership, appointing Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr to replace the assassinated Ali Larijani, underscoring wartime consolidation at the top. Zolghadr is a former Revolutionary Guards commander.
Status of Diplomacy
Lebanon has declared the Iranian ambassador persona non grata and ordered him to leave the country by Sunday, after an Iranian ballistic missile fell on Lebanese territory. This appears also a way to pressure Hezbollah, given the Lebanese state has long wanted the Tehran-linked group to lay down is arms so war doesn’t engulf the whole country.
Both Pakistan and Qatar have stepped up mediation efforts, with chatter that Islamabad could play host to future Iranian and US talks. Despite the rumors of ongoing backchannel communications, and President Trump himself insisting Sunday into Monday this is happening, there’s as yet no clear evidence that Tehran and Washington are actually dialoguing. Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry has told Al Jazeera that Islamabad is ready to host talks between the US and Iran: “If the parties desire, Islamabad is always willing to host talks,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Tahir Andrabi said. Andrabi’s comment came a day after Trump put on hold, for a period five days, his threat to bomb Iranian power plants.
WSJ meanwhile writes, “Foreign ministers from Egypt, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan gathered before dawn Thursday in Riyadh for talks aimed at finding a diplomatic off-ramp to the war in Iran.” The report continues, “But there was one big problem, according to Arab officials involved in the discussions: finding a counterpart in Iran to negotiate with. Earlier that week, Israel killed Iran’s national security chief, Ali Larijani, who had been considered a viable partner who could engage with the West.”
And Bloomberg’s assessment: “Fighting between the US-Israeli alliance and Iran raged unabated, even as President Donald Trump claimed talks are under way to end the conflict.” The report then notes no observable cooling or offramp in the tit-for-tat exchanges of fire:
Iran carried out overnight missile and drone attacks on the Israeli cities of Tel Aviv, Eilat and Dimona, as well as on US bases in the Middle East. Israel launched a wave of strikes in western and central Iran, including Tehran, with Defense Minister Israel Katz saying the campaign would continue “at full intensity.”
Israel is Cool on Prospect of a Deal
Reports out of regional and Israeli media claim Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi quietly signaled to US envoy Steve Witkoff that Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has agreed to negotiations, while Iranian officials said they have received US proposals via intermediaries and are reviewing them. However, Tehran keeps threatening and delivering more ‘retaliatory’ action, perceiving that it has the long-term strategic leverage given the Strait of Hormuz crisis and Trump seeming to issue forth dictates on a back foot.
Israeli officials have by and large dismissed the prospects of a deal, warning the chances of agreement are “very small” and stressing that US force deployments and joint operational planning remain unchanged.
More Regional Spillover: Caspian & Lebanon
The Kremlin has newly warned that any expansion into the Caspian Sea would be viewed “extremely negatively” after Israeli strikes reportedly targeted Iranian naval assets there. Meanwhile, a parallel ground war in Lebanon is accelerating. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz signaled a long-term buffer zone and mass displacement, stating, “Hundreds of thousands… will not return south of the Litani River until security is guaranteed.”
Video purports to show large Israeli strike on Southern Lebanon overnight - an apparent hit on a gas station:
Israel has already destroyed key infrastructure, with Katz confirming, "All five bridges over the Litani… have been blown up," as forces move to control the area. There are over 1,000 dead and more than a million displaced in Lebanon, with much of Israel's north also still under emergency evacuation orders, given Hezbollah rocket fire there. At least two Lebanese died in the last day due to Israeli strikes Bshamoun.
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Man, Iran doesn't get it.
It should just do whatever Israel/US want it to do. It's actually Iran's fault that it resists the hegemony and wants to do what's best for itself. That's crazy.