How Trump Can Turn the Midterms Around and Shock the Establishment
Time is running out. But it's not too late.
This article originally appeared on RealClearWire and was republished with permission.
Guest post by John Tillman
Midterm elections go one of two ways. They’re either a validation of the sitting president, or they’re a repudiation. Historically, they’ve almost always been a repudiation.
The 2026 midterms are shaping up to be no different – a firm rebuke to Donald Trump. That’s obviously bad for him. Congress will spend two straight years investigating and likely impeaching him.
But the bigger danger is to America. Democratic control of Congress will jeopardize Republicans’ efforts to restore an economy of opportunity for all. Worse, the left will lay the groundwork for recapturing the White House in 2028, at which point they’ll implement the most anti-opportunity agenda in American history. We’re talking welfare for all, funded by crippling tax hikes and a federal takeover of a once free economy.
Can Donald Trump turn the midterms around? Only if he, his fellow Republicans, and their allies on the right make immediate changes. If they do, they could stem the losses in November – and maybe even defy the odds to expand their majorities in the House and Senate.
First and foremost: They need to realize that midterms hinge on turnout.
The reason midterms are usually a presidential repudiation is because voters from the other party are more motivated. They feel greater anger and intensity, and they show up. The president’s supporters, meanwhile, usually think they did their job when they elected their man. Why bother showing up again?
If President Trump’s supporters don’t show up, Republican defeat is guaranteed. The most urgent need, therefore, is to invest in a massive get-out-the-vote operation. The GOP needs one the likes of which it’s ever seen.
But such an effort also needs a message – something that resonates with voters and sparks them to action. That’s the second area where change is needed. Because right now, Republicans don’t have any meaningful message at all.
The left certainly does. Democratic politicians, their allies in the media, and their associated army of activists and nonprofits have rallied around a single word: Affordability. They’re tricking voters into thinking that all the inflation and financial pain that Joe Biden caused is really the fault of Donald Trump. The call to action writes itself: If voters want to make ends meet, their only hope is to vote the GOP out.
This message works, but only because Republicans are letting it work. They’re largely silent in the face of Democratic attacks. Worse, in the president’s case, he’s calling affordability a “hoax.” For voters who supported him because of Joe Biden’s inflation, nothing could be worse. It’s tantamount to saying their problems don’t matter.
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Republicans must reclaim the economic high ground. They need to relentlessly hammer the point that Joe Biden’s enormous failures will take time to fix. They need to point to the relief they’ve given, especially the tax cuts the president signed in July. Most importantly, they need to lay out a unified agenda that speaks to Americans’ deep concerns, convincing voters that the GOP will in fact make life more affordable.
Crafting that agenda is as much the work of policy wonks as it is public relations. Republicans and their allies should be relentlessly message-testing and focus-grouping to discover not only what policies Americans want, but how to sell the policies that Americans need – in health care, housing, and beyond. This can be done without compromising conservative principles. In fact, it’s essential if those principles have a path to becoming policies.
There’s one more message the GOP needs. It’s not enough to make the positive case for their own priorities. They need to relentlessly remind Americans of the danger posed by Democrats.
This isn’t hard. The return of crippling inflation. The collapse of our borders once again. Higher taxes on the middle class. Republicans have a simple case to make: If voters want all of America to look more like crime-ridden, welfare-defrauding, utterly unaffordable big blue cities, they should vote for Democrats.
Republicans needed these messages yesterday. They needed a turnout operation that was already delivering these messages to the base and undecided voters alike. If they and their allies don’t get their act together before the start of the year, the midterm elections will indeed be a repudiation of Donald Trump. Worse, they’ll put America’s future at risk. The clock is ticking.
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