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Realistically, wouldn't Alberta be annexed by the U.S.A. as Trump has demanded for Greenland? That is what happened with Texas, another oil-rich state that separated from a neighbour of the U.S. - it declared independence from Mexico in 1836 and was admitted to the Union less than a decade later.

It's hard to see how an independent Alberta would be able to avoid such a fate, given its geographical position bordering the U.S., economic dependence on trade with the U.S., the U.S.' ability to make it a better offer (financially/fiscally) than Canada. It'd just become another prairie state like Minnesota and the Dakotas. Then the U.S. would probably try their luck with Saskatchewan and the North West Territories/Yukon to circumvent the Northwest Passage to the seas, given that these are currently Canadian waters and Canada can decide which ships pass through (Chinese, U.S., European, etc.). This could also make Alaska part of the contiguous U.S.A., if successful in annexing the western Canadian Arctic. The Trump administration has of course been publicly opposed to Canadian sovereignty over these waters since his first term, a symptom of an administrative aversion to seeking consent from allied countries that always give consent anyway (Panama, Canada, Denmark, etc.): https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-winning-at-all-costs-the-bizarre-position-of-the-trump-administration/

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